I was just talking about this just a few weeks again and just happened to come across this….

I have my own misgivings about the iPhone, primarily because of their exclusivity with a sub-par service provider, but let me think about your two suppositions for a minute:

1) The iPhone does not allow open development.
I think you’re right, this is a big one, but consider this. Apple has long curated offerings associated with its brand. While it did reduce its overall market share of PCs in general, Apple is not doing so bad compared to other BRANDS in the PC marketplace. People like Apple computers specifically because of their curation. The hardware all looks the same, all works the same. The iPhone has taken it a step further to curate the applications that it runs. While this is certainly not necessarily an advantage to developers, it is not necessarily a disadvantage to the end user.

2) The future of web-enabled phones is multitasking.
To this I will simply say the argument goes away completely if Apple released an iPhone capable of multitasking tomorrow. However, my multitasking Blackberry likes to freeze and bug out a hell of a lot more than an iPhone.

In Conclusion:
Chances are, if you change both these variables, you will have a less stable platform. This has been exemplified for decades in the Microsoft’s offerings, wrought with viruses due to its more exposed nature, and instability due in part to its forced exposure to various hardware components.

As many a dinner party host has discovered, when you invite everyone to the table at the same time to share the same resources and conversation, conflicts are bound to come up.

My personal opinion of the whole business is as follows – in the future the web that you know will be the web that knows you. Context will stream from the phone via the HTTP protocol and web servers will know Who, What and Where you are in real time without the need for you to enter any data.

We’ve already released a free mobile app for BB and WM that accomplishes this whilst still allowing you complete control over your data that you decide to share. In addition it’s been ported to Android, Symbian and iPhone. In essence the future is Mobile Web apps that recognize you and your context and personalize new services for you.

Cheers,

Peter
5o9 Inc.