But that’s not my major point today.  One of the things that came up again on this trip is the notion that for the first time in my career Microsoft is just plain not in the game.  Irrelevant.  No show.

Now, I’ve been at this game awhile.  I wrote my first code in 9th grade in 1979 (on a TRS-80 Model 1) well before Microsoft mattered.  But my first real development came during the period when Microsoft was trying to get Windows to be real.  In those days Digital Research had a great DOS called DRDOS that was the cats meow.  And in my opinion, Microsoft did everything in their power to make sure DRDOS failed.  Fast forward through all the history with Microsoft, the anti-trust cases, the clear outright dominance of the market, the flailing attempt of my beloved Linux to get some kind of toe-hold, the Microsoft funded SCO debacle… for most of my professional life Microsoft has been the bruiser, the 600 pound gorilla, the Heavyweight Champion of the World.

Not any more.  When was the last time you heard something about Microsoft that mattered?  Thought so.

The reality is that in the consumer space it’s now Apple and Microsoft.  The shift to mobile-oriented computing is well documented (I won’t elaborate here).  For most people the computer they use most is their mobile phone.  The innovation and the new markets are in mobile.  The interaction with the cloud will be primarily mobile.  In short, the MARKET that MATTERS will be mobile.  And Microsoft has a pathetic attempt with Windows Mobile 7.  It’s late, it’s not as good as what shipped by Apple or Google/Android last year, and it has no compelling EXTRA VALUE.  I’m not the only one who says this – just read here (disaster) , here (doomed), and here (unimpressive) (your own search will return hundreds more like this).   On the desktop market, which still has a place, the only market I see Microsoft in is the old Enterprise.  And if the Oracle momentum is not stopped, that will matter less and less to Redmond too.  That’s a whole different post though.

I want to point out what I mean by EXTRA VALUE.  Android provides compelling value by being free to the handset vendors allowing for a cheaper phone, and it supports the Google ecosystem giving free access to email and navigation.  The only think my wife really misses from her Android phone (I bought her an iPhone) is the navigation in Google Maps.   Microsoft has NOTHING to compare.  Apple has the cool factor, of course, but they also have the Apple ecosystem around iTunes.  Serious extra value is there from an integrated suite of tools that just work.  Microsoft has NOTHING to compare. They simply don’t.  Their software is crap, they have no extra value, and they don’t offer a price advantage.  They still exist on the echoes of their former monopoly power.

As Om Malik points out the shift in mobile is Apple and Android taking market from RIM and Nokia.  Microsoft is not even mentioned.  I could write much the same about RIM and Nokia – they suffer the same problems that Microsoft does.

The bottom line is that we are entering a new era, and it’s going to be one where Apple, Google, Oracle, and Amazon are the new gorillas.  I’ll save it for later why I think Amazon will be in that list, but the most important thing on my mind today is that for the first time ever in my career, Microsoft is simply not in the game.  And I don’t think they ever will be either – they are too big, too bloated, and as described in the The Innovator’s Dilemma they are getting eaten from below.  And as I reflect on the years of their bullying, I can’t say it bothers me all that much.  Long live the new era.  I think it’s rules will be different, but no less cut-throat!

The bigger question is hidden below the surface of this issue.  Who says that a single company can control what you read on your phone or tablet computer?  Is it really OK that Steve Jobs and his employees get to decide what you have access to?  That flies in the face of everything that America was founded on.   Where is the line?  Will they get to the point where they mandate that you can only install applications that get news from a certain partner company?  What if Apple suddenly decides that the BBC is an enemy of theirs?   Will they retroactively deny applications that can connect to the BBC for a news feed?  What’s to stop them?

Android is becoming a bigger question, a bigger solution, a bigger issue.  It’s becoming about the freedom to control your computing platform.  It’s about the right to install whatever the hell software you want on the device that rapidly is becoming the most used computer in your life.  I for one don’t plan on giving that control to Apple – no matter how slick and nice their software is.

Really folks:  are you willing to trade away your freedom for a bright shiny toy?  Really?