“We are nearly at coder-equivalency for economically useful coding. A sufficiently experienced software engineer can now write >90% of production-ready code purely through prompting.” Yes, exactly.
Ben Congdon’s recent post “The Decline of the Software Drafter?” says:
“We are nearly at coder-equivalency for economically useful coding. A sufficiently experienced software engineer can now write >90% of production-ready code purely through prompting.”
He’s right. The mechanical act of translating requirements into syntax is increasingly handled by AI. His analogy to technical drafters displaced by CAD is apt—those jobs didn’t vanish overnight, but the skill mix shifted dramatically toward design judgment and away from manual execution.
That’s where we are today with Software Engineering.
What Still Matters
Congdon identifies what remains valuable:
- Knowing how code works at a gears-level is still largely valuable.
- Foundational computer science knowledge is still largely valuable.
- Software “taste” or discernment or heuristics is still largely valuable.
Yes! You have to understand why code behaves a certain way, recognizing architectural smells, knowing when a solution is elegant versus merely functional—these skills become more important when the typing is automated.
What Doesn’t Matter So Much
He’s equally clear about what’s changing:
- Being solely a “coder” is a path to stable employment.
- Being a software “craftsperson” ceases to be valuable or enjoyable. (Rather, I think the value will likely shift and look more like an actual craft – high end, not commoditized, but not mass market.)
The first I agree with completely. The second… is complicated. If you are doing low-level kernel code, or embedded systems, or microcontroller code, that statement is just bullshit. And some disciplines are exempt still (think medical or nuclear power controllers). But for most mainstream commercial software development for cloud or web? He’s right. There’s no economical place anymore for software craftsmanship. It doesn’t die; it becomes more like other crafts. There’s still demand for bespoke furniture even though IKEA exists. The difference is scale and compensation expectations. And since Software Engineers have been incredibly well compensated for a long time this is going to cause some pretty heavy angste.
The Shift
The industry hasn’t adjusted yet. Hiring still emphasizes coding tests. Bootcamps still teach syntax. But the real work increasingly looks like:
- Understanding systems deeply enough to prompt effectively
- Reviewing AI-generated code with critical judgment
- Making architectural decisions AI can’t reason about
- Debugging the weird stuff that doesn’t fit patterns
Engineers who adapt to this will be fine. No, they will THRIVE. Those who define themselves purely by lines of code per day will struggle. Those who want to write every line of code themselves, making it all elegant, and deeply understanding every little nuance… may find that is something for hobby code, and not for code that an employer is paying them for. It’s just not fast enough. Unless you can find someone who will pay for that hand-crafted code.
The game has changed. Just like it did for drafters.
What We Need To Do
We seriously need to do a few things for the future:
- we need to really mentor our junior Software Engineers - they won’t get a chance to learn the way us older folks did
- we radically need to change how we teach Software Engineering at University. Purdue has made a start but the way we teach it now is antique.
They say it’s always about People, Process and Technology. The Tech is changing 100x faster than our processes, and the poor people are barely recognizing that the game isn’t checkers anymore. It’s 3D chess.
I think it’s all-hands on deck time, folks. That, or be like the drafters.